MODELING OF ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS FOR REGIONS ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD

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Published: May 11, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.63874/2218-0281-2026-1-78-84
Keywords:
Belt and Road Initiative, economic growth, methodological support, Cobb – Douglas production function, panel data, scenario modeling.

Main Article Content

Valeri Karpenka
Belarusian State University
Kun Lin
Belarusian State University

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative, proposed in 2013, has become the largest international platform for cooperation and an important tool for promoting sustainable development. However, the countries located along the «Path» vary significantly in terms of economic development, institutional environment, natural resources, and social structure. In this paper, a theoretical model of economic growth is first constructed based on the classical Cobb – Douglas production function, then an improved model is developed taking into account variables such as openness to trade, foreign direct investment, human capital, and energy efficiency. Panel data for Poland, Kazakhstan, and Thailand for 2010–2022 were used for empirical analysis. Based on the results obtained, three scenarios have been developed: basic, cooperative, and innovative, with a forecast of economic growth for 2025–2035. The results show that cooperative and innovative scenarios can significantly increase growth potential, and improvements in human capital and energy efficiency are key factors for sustainable development. In conclusion, differentiated policy recommendations for different countries are proposed, which will provide methodological support for the implementation of the «Belt and Road» initiative.

Article Details

How to Cite
[1]
Karpenka, V. and Lin, K. 2026. MODELING OF ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS FOR REGIONS ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD. Vesnik of Brest University. Series 2. History. Economics. Law. 1 (May 2026), 78–84. DOI:https://doi.org/10.63874/2218-0281-2026-1-78-84.
Issue
No. 1 (2026): Vesnik of Brest University. Series 2. History. Economics. Law
Section
ЭКАНОМІКА

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